Terminal Instability

Terminal instability (in system dynamics terms) is when reinforcing feedback loops dominate so strongly that the system “runs away” toward a tipping point or breakdown, and the usual stabilizers (balancing feedback, buffers, institutions, norms) can’t correct course fast enough. - Coupling loop(s): climate impacts -> instability -> reduced cooperation -> higher emissions/vulnerability.

When it comes to humanity, survival, war and climate change, terminal instability is a killer.

A conversation with AI

Here is how terminal instability and related "non-recoverable" states are defined in computer science:

1. Terminal Instability (Control Systems & Computing)

• Definition: The point where a system becomes unstable, typically characterized by uncontrolled divergence. It is often used to describe systems that are impossible to control due to unpredictable, runaway behavior.
• Context: This occurs when a system’s internal mechanisms cannot counteract errors, leading to a total failure to maintain functional equilibrium. Wikipedia +3

2. Irreversible State (Computational Theory & Memory)

• Definition: A computation or state where information is lost, and the previous state cannot be recovered (e.g., erasing bits).
• Irreversible Damage: Refers to corruption that makes data or hardware unusable, often requiring a total wipe or replacement of hardware. Reddit +4

3. Catastrophic Failure / "Brick"

• Definition: A total system failure where small, innocuous errors compile until they exceed the system's resilience thresholds, resulting in a "systemic accident" or complete crash.
• "Bricking": Colloquially, when a device is rendered permanently useless due to software corruption (e.g., broken BIOS) or physical destruction. Reddit +1

4. Other Related Terms

• Unstable Steady State: A point where the slightest disturbance causes the system to move away from its intended operating point.
• Numerical Instability: In computing, this is when rounding errors in an algorithm compound uncontrollably, leading to massive, unrecoverable errors in output.
• Runaway Process: A process that consumes all available resources, leading to system crash. ScienceDirect.com +4

Examples of Irreversible System Damage

• Kernel Panic/Blue Screen of Death (BSOD): A fatal error that halts the operating system entirely.
• Ransomware/Data Destruction: Total encryption of data with no recovery key.
• BIOS/Firmware Corruption: Damage to the low-level software, preventing the computer from booting.

Terminal Instability in War and Climate Change

Terminal instability (in system dynamics terms) is when reinforcing feedback loops dominate so strongly that the system “runs away” toward a tipping point or breakdown, and the usual stabilizers (balancing feedback, buffers, institutions, norms) can’t correct course fast enough.

How terminal instability shows up in war (human interaction)
- Security dilemma: One side’s “defensive” moves are read as offensive, prompting reciprocal escalation (reinforcing loop).
- Arms race dynamics: More weapons -> more perceived threat -> more weapons.
- Commitment traps: Leaders make public promises, then can’t back down without loss of legitimacy, which narrows de-escalation options.
- Polarization and dehumanization: Reduced empathy/information quality -> higher support for violence -> more violence -> further reduced empathy.
- “Fast variables” dominate: Events move faster than diplomacy and institutions can respond (decision cycles shrink).

How terminal instability shows up in climate
- Positive feedbacks: Warming triggers processes that cause more warming (e.g., reduced albedo from ice loss; more wildfire; some carbon-cycle feedbacks).
- Overshoot and delay: Emissions accumulate (stock) while impacts lag, so policy response is often late relative to physical momentum.
- Compounding extremes: Heat, drought, floods, crop failures stack, stressing infrastructure and governance.
- Lock-in: Long-lived assets (power plants, supply chains, urban form) keep emissions and vulnerability high.

Where war and climate couple into a single instability problem
- Climate shocks can raise conflict risk by stressing food/water, livelihoods, and migration pathways (context-dependent, but the stress pathway is real).
- Conflict reduces climate capacity: destroyed infrastructure, diverted budgets, degraded cooperation, and disrupted supply chains slow mitigation/adaptation.
- Misinformation and trust collapse worsen both: lower trust -> weaker collective action -> worse outcomes -> lower trust.

A practical way to “understand” it (without getting lost in theory)
1) Draw 3 causal loop diagrams (CLDs)
- War escalation loop(s): threat perception, arms, incidents, retaliation, domestic politics.
- Climate deterioration loop(s): emissions, warming, impacts, policy response delays, lock-in.
- Coupling loop(s): climate impacts -> instability -> reduced cooperation -> higher emissions/vulnerability.
2) Convert the most important loops into a stock-and-flow view
- Stocks: atmospheric CO2, trust, institutional capacity, grievances, weapons inventories, resilient infrastructure.
- Flows: emissions, diplomacy/trust-building, arms procurement, adaptation investment, misinformation spread.
3) Identify “dominant loops” by timescale
- What loops move in days/weeks (crisis escalation)?
- What loops move in years/decades (infrastructure, climate stocks)?
Terminal instability often happens when fast reinforcing loops overwhelm slow stabilizers.

Common leverage points to transcend terminal instability (what changes the dynamics)
- Strengthen balancing feedback (stabilizers)
- War: hotlines, verification regimes, incident deconfliction protocols, third-party monitoring, credible off-ramps.
- Climate: automatic policy stabilizers (e.g., escalating carbon constraints), fast permitting for clean infrastructure, grid reliability measures.
- Increase buffers and redundancy (reduce brittleness)
- Food/water reserves, diversified energy, resilient logistics, decentralized systems that don’t fail all at once.
- Shorten information and response delays
- Better early-warning for climate extremes; rapid-response diplomacy; transparent real-time data to reduce rumor-driven escalation.
- Reduce incentive for reinforcing escalation
- War: reduce “use-it-or-lose-it” postures; align domestic incentives with de-escalation; design agreements that survive leadership changes.
- Climate: remove fossil lock-in incentives; align profit with decarbonization and resilience.
- Change the goal/function of the system (deep leverage)
- If security is pursued via domination/zero-sum logic, escalation loops stay attractive.
- If prosperity is pursued via throughput growth regardless of externalities, climate loops stay attractive.
Shifting goals toward “shared security” and “durable wellbeing within constraints” changes what policies are even thinkable.

One Earth One Chance 

 www.oneearthonechance.com