Expedition to Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica

Expedition to Thwaites Glacier: What Scientists Went to Measure—and What the World Stands to Lose

Thwaites Glacier, a Florida-sized river of ice flowing from West Antarctica into the Amundsen Sea, has become one of the most closely watched places on Earth. It is remote, brutally cold, and logistically expensive to reach, yet international teams of scientists have repeatedly mounted ambitious expeditions there for a simple reason: Thwaites is changing fast, and the way it fails could reshape coastlines worldwide.

Often called the “Doomsday Glacier” in popular media, Thwaites deserves serious scientific attention without the hype. Its importance is not that catastrophe is inevitable tomorrow, but that its geometry and setting make it unusually vulnerable to continued warming—much of it driven by human-caused greenhouse-gas emissions from fossil fuels. The expedition work at Thwaites is therefore not just polar exploration; it is frontline climate risk research: measuring how rapidly the glacier is retreating, why it is retreating, and how much sea-level rise could follow if destabilization continues.

Why go to Thwaites at all?

Antarctica is vast, and many glaciers are changing. Thwaites stands out because it is both massive and strategically positioned. It drains a large portion of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), and its retreat can help “unplug” neighboring ice, accelerating ice loss beyond its own basin. Scientists also focus on Thwaites because it sits on bedrock that slopes downward inland—an arrangement that can promote self-sustaining retreat once triggered, a process known as marine ice sheet instability.

To understand this risk, researchers need more than satellite images. They need direct observations of what is happening where the ice meets the ocean—the grounding zone—because that is where warm seawater can melt the glacier from below, thinning it until it loses its grip on the bed and retreats.

That is the central scientific reason for expeditions to Thwaites: to quantify the physical processes—ocean heat delivery, sub-ice melting, ice deformation, and fracture—that determine the glacier’s future.

A major collaborative effort that exemplifies this work is the International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration (ITGC), a partnership between the U.S. National Science Foundation and UK Research and Innovation. The project combined field campaigns, airborne surveys, satellite analyses, and numerical modeling to reduce uncertainty about Thwaites’ trajectory.
Reference: https://www.thwaitesglacier.org/

What scientists do on the ice

Fieldwork at Thwaites looks like a blend of geophysics, oceanography, and engineering—performed in one of the harshest environments on the planet.

1) Drilling through hundreds of meters of ice
One of the most consequential expedition methods is hot-water drilling. Teams melt narrow boreholes through the floating ice shelf or near the grounding zone to reach the ocean cavity below. Instruments are lowered to measure temperature, salinity, currents, and turbulence—data needed to calculate how much heat is reaching the ice and how quickly it can melt it.

In a landmark study, scientists directly accessed the ocean cavity beneath Thwaites and observed warm water and vigorous mixing capable of driving substantial basal melt.
Scientific reference (Nature): https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-05732-9

2) Mapping the seafloor and subglacial terrain
The shape of the bed beneath the glacier controls how water flows and where ice is likely to retreat. Expedition teams use ice-penetrating radar, seismic surveys, and autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) to map cavities and ridges that can either slow retreat (pinning points) or accelerate it (deep channels that funnel warm water).

AUV missions under ice shelves are particularly challenging and valuable because they can map the under-ice environment where ships cannot go.
Scientific reference (AUV mapping beneath Thwaites; Nature): https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-05820-w

3) Measuring ice flow, stress, and fracture
Scientists deploy GPS networks to track ice motion, place seismometers to detect cracking and basal slip, and use radar to identify weaknesses and rift systems. These measurements reveal whether an ice shelf is acting like a “buttress” (a braking force) or losing structural integrity.

Ice shelves do not directly raise sea level when they melt (they already float), but they matter enormously because they restrain the glaciers behind them. If Thwaites’ ice shelf weakens or collapses, the glacier’s inland ice can accelerate into the ocean, raising sea level.

4) Combining field data with satellite observations and models
Satellites provide continuous measurements of ice velocity, elevation change, and grounding-line migration, while field data provide the “ground truth” that makes models realistic. The goal is to narrow the range of plausible futures: how fast retreat could proceed and under what ocean and atmospheric conditions.

Reference (overview of Antarctic ice loss and satellite gravity measurements): https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2021/antarctic-ice-loss-accelerates

The immediate reason for the trip: warm ocean water is attacking the glacier from below

Thwaites is not primarily threatened by warm air melting its surface, as many mountain glaciers are. Its most critical vulnerability is ocean-driven basal melting at and near the grounding line. The Amundsen Sea has access to relatively warm deep water (often referred to in the literature as Circumpolar Deep Water). When currents carry this water onto the continental shelf and into cavities beneath ice shelves, it can melt the ice from underneath—out of sight, but powerfully.

This is why expedition teams invest so much effort in under-ice oceanography: if you want to understand Thwaites, you must understand the heat budget of the water bathing its underside.

The dangers to the world if Thwaites breaks up

Risk from Thwaites is best understood in layers:

1) Thwaites’ own contribution to sea level rise
If Thwaites Glacier were to lose all its grounded ice, its contribution to global mean sea level is often cited at roughly 0.6–0.7 meters (about 2 feet). This figure is widely reported and aligns with assessments based on ice volume above flotation.

Reference (U.S. Antarctic Program/NSF background on Thwaites): https://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/thwaites/

2) The “plug” effect and the wider West Antarctic Ice Sheet
Thwaites is sometimes described as a keystone because its retreat could destabilize adjacent drainage basins in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. If a broader WAIS collapse were initiated and sustained over time, the total contribution could reach on the order of ~3 meters (roughly 10 feet) of global mean sea level.

Reference (IPCC AR6 WGI: sea level rise, ice-sheet uncertainty): https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/
Reference (IPCC AR6 SROCC: ice sheets and sea level): https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/

Those are global mean numbers. The real-world impact at specific coasts can be higher or lower depending on ocean dynamics, gravitational effects, and land subsidence. In many highly populated deltas and coastal cities, even tens of centimeters of additional rise greatly increases the frequency of damaging floods.

3) Faster acceleration of coastal extremes
Sea level rise is not just about permanent inundation. It acts as a “riser” beneath storm surges and high tides, causing events that used to be rare to become frequent. This translates to more saltwater intrusion into drinking-water aquifers, higher costs for stormwater systems, greater erosion, and increasing disruption of ports, roads, and coastal housing.

4) Potential for abrupt retreat versus long, drawn-out change
A key uncertainty is timescale. Some ice-sheet processes unfold over centuries; others can accelerate rapidly once thresholds are crossed. Thwaites’ grounding line has been retreating, and parts of the glacier show signs of structural vulnerability, but scientists are careful about pinning down exact dates for worst-case outcomes. The purpose of expeditions is to reduce that uncertainty by measuring the processes that govern change.

Reference (IPCC AR6: discussion of “low-likelihood, high-impact” outcomes including ice-sheet instabilities): https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/chapter-9/

How much sea level rise could occur?

To summarize the most policy-relevant numbers used in scientific and assessment contexts:

- Thwaites Glacier alone: approximately 0.6–0.7 meters (about 2 feet) potential global mean sea-level rise if its grounded ice were lost.
- Broader West Antarctic Ice Sheet: approximately ~3 meters (about 10 feet) if a large-scale WAIS collapse unfolded.

These are not forecasts for this century in a simple, guaranteed sense. They are potential contributions under sustained warming and continued destabilization. The range of 21st-century sea-level rise projections depends strongly on future emissions and on how ice-sheet processes are represented in models.

Reference (IPCC AR6 WGI Summary for Policymakers: sea-level rise ranges under different emissions scenarios): https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM.pdf

The fossil-fuel connection: why Thwaites is not “just natural change”

Expeditions to Thwaites are motivated by physics, but the reason this physics now matters so urgently is human activity—particularly the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas) that releases carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4). These greenhouse gases trap heat in the climate system. Most of the excess heat goes into the oceans, not the atmosphere, and that ocean heat is precisely what threatens glaciers like Thwaites.

In other words, Thwaites is not merely a barometer of temperature. It is a barometer of energy imbalance—an imbalance caused primarily by greenhouse-gas increases from industrial activity, dominated historically by fossil-fuel combustion.

The causal chain, simplified but accurate, looks like this:

1) Fossil-fuel burning increases atmospheric CO2.
2) Increased CO2 strengthens the greenhouse effect, creating a net energy gain for Earth.
3) The ocean absorbs the majority of this excess heat.
4) Ocean circulation carries some of that heat toward Antarctica.
5) Warm water reaches ice shelves and grounding zones, increasing basal melting.
6) Ice shelves thin and weaken; grounded ice speeds up; sea level rises.

Multiple independent lines of evidence support this chain: direct atmospheric measurements of rising CO2, isotopic signatures linking CO2 increases to fossil carbon, satellite and ocean observations showing planetary heat uptake, and observed ice-sheet mass loss consistent with warming oceans and air.

Reference (NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory: atmospheric CO2 trends): https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/
Reference (Global Carbon Project: carbon budget, fossil emissions): https://globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/
Reference (IPCC AR6: attribution of warming to human influence): https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/chapter-3/

What the expedition “purpose” really is: turning climate risk into measurable engineering-scale facts

The deeper purpose of Thwaites expeditions is to convert an abstract global issue—human-caused warming driven largely by fossil fuels—into concrete, measurable, local processes that can be modeled and, ultimately, planned for.

For coastal planners, insurers, infrastructure designers, and governments, the difference between (for example) 0.5 meters and 1.0 meter of sea-level rise by 2100 is enormous. It affects building codes, flood defenses, mortgage risk, port investments, and disaster response. Yet ice-sheet uncertainty remains one of the largest contributors to uncertainty in long-term sea-level projections. Thwaites is a major reason why.

So the expedition work is a form of risk reduction for society: it helps constrain how sensitive ice is to warming oceans, whether grounding lines can stabilize on ridges, how fracture mechanics might lead to rapid ice-shelf breakup, and how quickly inland ice responds.

This is also why fossil fuels are inseparable from the story. The faster humanity continues adding greenhouse gases, the more heat the ocean stores, and the more likely it becomes that Thwaites—and other vulnerable marine-terminating glaciers—cross thresholds that commit the planet to higher sea levels for centuries.

The Antarctic expedition environment: danger is part of the data

It is easy to talk about glaciers in terms of graphs and meters. But getting those numbers can be dangerous and difficult, and those difficulties shape the science.

- Remoteness and logistics: Thwaites is far from major research stations. Fuel, food, drilling equipment, and shelters must be flown or hauled in. Bad weather can ground aircraft for days.
- Extreme cold and wind: Instruments fail, batteries drain quickly, and exposed skin can freeze in minutes.
- Crevasses and unstable ice: The glacier is heavily fractured in places. Safe travel requires ground-penetrating radar, flagged routes, and constant vigilance.
- Operating at the grounding zone: This is a dynamic boundary of ice, ocean, and tide. Ice can flex, fracture, and calve. Working near an ice front or on a thinning shelf demands strict safety protocols.
- Ocean-ice operations: Deploying AUVs beneath an ice shelf adds technical risk; if an AUV is lost, it may be unrecoverable. Yet the data can be uniquely valuable.

These dangers are not adventure for its own sake. They are the price of observing processes that cannot be inferred reliably from space alone.

What Thwaites teaches us about choices—especially energy choices

Thwaites Glacier is not a morality tale; it is a physical system responding to energy added to the planet. But it is also a clear indicator that energy decisions—especially continued reliance on fossil fuels—carry long-lived consequences.

Even if emissions were reduced sharply, sea level will continue rising for a long time because oceans warm slowly and ice sheets respond over decades to centuries. That is precisely why the Thwaites expeditions matter now: they help determine how much rise is already “locked in,” how much can still be avoided, and what time windows exist for adaptation.

In practical terms, the expedition results support two complementary responses:

1) Mitigation: cutting greenhouse-gas emissions (including rapid reductions in fossil-fuel use) to limit further ocean warming and reduce the probability of triggering high-end ice-sheet outcomes.
2) Adaptation: preparing coasts for rising seas that are already underway, using improved projections that incorporate the best available ice and ocean physics.

The expedition to Thwaites Glacier is therefore a scientific mission with a societal purpose: to measure, as directly as possible, how human-caused warming is interacting with one of the planet’s most consequential ice systems—before its changes become too large, too fast, and too expensive to manage.

Selected scientific references (clickable)

- International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration (project portal): https://www.thwaitesglacier.org/
- Ocean access beneath Thwaites and basal melt processes (Nature, 2023): https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-05732-9
- AUV mapping and under-ice shelf observations (Nature, 2023): https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-05820-w
- IPCC AR6 Working Group I (The Physical Science Basis): https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/
- IPCC AR6 WGI Summary for Policymakers (PDF): https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM.pdf
- NOAA CO2 trends (Mauna Loa and global networks): https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/
- Global Carbon Project (annual carbon budget and fossil emissions): https://globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/
- NSF Thwaites background and U.S. Antarctic Program context: https://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/thwaites/
- NASA overview of Antarctic ice loss and observations: https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2021/antarctic-ice-loss-accelerates

Questions

Expedition to the Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica.

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Teachers

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• How do I incorporate the findings from the Thwaites Glacier expeditions into my science curriculum effectively? I want to create lessons that not only inform but also inspire my students to think critically about climate science and its impacts.  Gemini
• What are the differences between Thwaites Glacier and other glaciers around the world, such as those in Greenland? Comparing these glaciers can help my students better understand the unique challenges each one faces due to climate change.  Gemini
• Why is it important for scientists to study Thwaites Glacier, and what challenges do they encounter during their research? Exploring these questions can provide my students with insight into the complexities of scientific exploration in extreme environments.  Gemini
• What is the best way to engage my students in discussions about the future of Thwaites Glacier and its implications for coastal communities? I want to encourage them to think about solutions and their role in combating climate change.  Gemini

Cities

• What is the significance of Thwaites Glacier in the context of global climate change, and how does its melting impact cities around the world? Understanding the glacier's role can help urban residents grasp the urgent need for climate action.  Gemini
• How do I prepare for an expedition to Thwaites Glacier, and what essential gear should I consider bringing? Knowing what to pack for extreme conditions can make a significant difference in ensuring safety and comfort during such a challenging journey.  Gemini
• What are the differences between Thwaites Glacier and other glaciers in Antarctica when it comes to their rates of melting and contributions to sea level rise? Comparing these glaciers can provide insights into broader environmental trends that could directly affect coastal cities.  Gemini
• Why is the research on Thwaites Glacier not getting more attention, and what are the potential consequences of this oversight for urban populations? Recognizing the implications of underreporting can motivate citizens to advocate for more focus on this critical issue.  Gemini
• What is the best way for cities to prepare for the potential impacts of Thwaites Glacier melting, and what strategies can they implement to mitigate risks? Exploring proactive measures can empower urban planners and community members to safeguard their environments against future challenges.  Gemini

Governors

• What is the significance of Thwaites Glacier in the context of global sea level rise, and how could its potential collapse impact our coastal communities? Understanding these implications is crucial for us as governors to make informed decisions regarding climate resilience.  Gemini
• How do I effectively communicate the urgency of climate change, specifically relating to Thwaites Glacier, to my constituents? Engaging the public on this issue is essential for fostering support for necessary environmental policies and initiatives.  Gemini
• How does the rate of melting at Thwaites Glacier compare to other glaciers in Antarctica, and what does this tell us about the overall health of our planet? Analyzing these comparisons can help us prioritize funding and resources for climate adaptation strategies.  Gemini
• Why is it that some climate models may underestimate the speed of ice loss from Thwaites Glacier, and what are the consequences of these inaccuracies? Addressing this gap in understanding is vital for ensuring that we prepare adequately for future changes.  Gemini
• What is the best way to leverage our state’s resources and partnerships to support scientific research on Thwaites Glacier? Collaborating with researchers can enhance our state's role in the global conversation about climate change and its local impacts.  Gemini

Doctors

• What is the significance of studying Thwaites Glacier in relation to global sea level rise, and how can this knowledge impact public health in coastal communities? Understanding the glacier's dynamics may help us predict future climate-related health issues that could arise from rising sea levels.  Gemini
• How do I interpret the latest research findings from the Thwaites Glacier expedition, and what implications could they have for my patients' health? It’s essential to translate scientific data into actionable insights for healthcare professionals to better prepare for climate-related health challenges.  Gemini
• How does the melting of Thwaites Glacier compare to other major glaciers in Antarctica, and what unique risks do they pose? By understanding these differences, we can better assess potential health impacts in regions that may be affected by glacial melt.  Gemini
• Why is it important for doctors to stay informed about the changes happening at Thwaites Glacier, and what consequences might arise if we ignore this information? Ignorance of these changes could lead to unpreparedness for health crises linked to environmental shifts.  Gemini
• Is it true that the collapse of Thwaites Glacier could lead to irreversible changes in global weather patterns, and what evidence supports this claim? Exploring this question can help healthcare providers understand the broader implications of climate change on public health trends.  Gemini

Banks

• What is the significance of Thwaites Glacier in the context of global sea-level rise, and why should banks be concerned about its potential impacts on coastal assets? Understanding the glacier's behavior and contributions to ocean levels can help financial institutions mitigate risks associated with climate change.  Gemini
• How do I assess the financial implications of climate-related events, such as the melting of Thwaites Glacier, on my investment portfolio? By analyzing the risks that climate change poses to various sectors, banks can better prepare their strategies for future uncertainties.  Gemini
• How does the environmental impact of Thwaites Glacier melting compare to other major glaciers around the world, such as Greenland and the Antarctic Peninsula? This comparison can provide valuable insights for banks looking to understand the broader implications of climate change on global economies.  Gemini
• Why are current models predicting accelerated melting of Thwaites Glacier not yielding the expected results, and what does this mean for financial risk assessments? Investigating the discrepancies in these models can help banks refine their approaches to forecasting climate-related financial risks.  Gemini
• What is the best way for banks to incorporate findings from expeditions to Thwaites Glacier into their sustainability initiatives and investment strategies? By leveraging the latest research, financial institutions can create more resilient portfolios that align with climate-conscious values.  Gemini

Philanthropists

• What is the significance of Thwaites Glacier in the context of global climate change and rising sea levels? Understanding its role can help me better align my philanthropic efforts with impactful climate action initiatives.  Gemini
• How do I effectively support scientific research expeditions to Thwaites Glacier? I want to ensure my contributions make a tangible difference in understanding this critical area of climate science.  Gemini
• What are the differences between funding local Antarctic research initiatives versus supporting broader international efforts focused on Thwaites Glacier? Evaluating the impact of each approach can inform how I allocate my philanthropic resources.  Gemini
• Why is it that some climate models underestimate the potential melting of Thwaites Glacier? Identifying the gaps in these models can help me advocate for more accurate research funding.  Gemini
• What is the best way to engage my network of philanthropists in discussions about the future implications of Thwaites Glacier melting? I want to create a compelling narrative that encourages collective action towards climate resilience and adaptation.  Gemini

One Earth One Chance 

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